The current dilemma in the Persian Gulf seems to perfectly illustrate the phrase “Catch-22.” If the United States does indeed attack Iraq, it must choose between using the unpopular option of ground troops or a possibly ineffective air bombing campaign. On the other hand, if the United States does not attack Iraq, it suffers loss of face and a muddle of future policy – do we continue to contain Iraq, or do we let bygones be bygones and progress with a new Iraq policy? The United States finds itself in a quagmire with divided domestic opinions, contradictory official views and a generally non-supportive set of allies.
If the United States launches an air war against suspected Iraqi chemical and biological weapons production sites, it is questionable whether missile attacks would effectively destroy Saddam’s production and storage facilities. This could leave Iraq in possession of these types of weapons – not a particularly good situation.
If the United States invades Iraq with ground troops, it would face tremendous domestic concern and pressure. Americans, for the most part, oppose the use of soldiers in a ground attack. Fear festers that those troops could be the first to discover whether or not Iraq does have weapons of mass destruction. The possibility of hundreds, if not thousands, of American casualties of a chemical or biological attack causes most people to cringe.
However, if the United States does not attack now, then when? How many deadlines will be given to Iraq, only to pass without any ramifications? How many lines in the sand will the United States draw each time saying, “I really mean it this time”? While diplomacy always is the preferred means of settling conflict, when is enough enough? What happens if Iraq repeatedly calls America’s bluff? What then?
No easy solution exists for this current crisis. By attacking, we risk antagonizing our allies, significant casualties and a stalemate along the current lines. How long are we going to contain Saddam? Is it rational for the United States to expect that the genie of weapons of mass destruction can somehow be put back into its bottle and corked up forever? We have no solutions. The unnerving thing is that it seems our leaders don’t, either.
