What: Men’s basketball (14-3, 3-1 A-10) vs. Dayton (13-3, 3-1 A-10).
Where: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio., ESPN2 (TV)
When: Friday, Jan. 15 at 7 p.m.

It doesn’t get easier for the Colonials after their first road win of the Atlantic 10 season, at UMass, on Tuesday. GW heads to Dayton for a nationally televised Friday night matchup.

Dayton, which just fell out of the Associated Press’ Top 25 rankings, represents the best opportunity for a statement-making upset left on GW’s schedule. But the Colonials will likely head into a packed UD Arena without senior point guard and emotional leader Joe McDonald.

It’s a game full of narrative-packed intrigue, but also full of challenges for the Colonials against the team picked to finish first in the conference.

Here’s what to expect from the game:

The case for the Colonials: Inconsistency has plagued Dayton. The Flyers lost to La Salle at home on Jan. 9 and already sported a bad loss to Chattanooga.

In the La Salle game, the explorers threw an old-school wrinkle at the Flyers, holding the ball until late in the shot clock, stalling the game and throwing Dayton off-balance. Dayton has not played many games at full strength, and may still be working on communication and cohesion, especially against different looks.

GW’s 1-3-1 could help take away drives from the athletic Dayton guards, and if the Flyers are forced to beat GW from distance, they may not be able to. Dayton makes 46.5 percent of shots from the field, but just 33.7 percent of three-point attempts.

The Flyers have struggled against zone defenses, particularly when they have been outrebounded by opponents. It happens that the Colonials are one of two teams (the other is George Mason) with a better rebounding margin than the Flyers, at +5.5 to +4.8 boards per game, respectively. GW also sports the best offensive rebounding percentage in the league, at 33.9 percent.

GW’s combination of ball movement and shooting should mean that the team will be able to score on Dayton. The Flyers will be vulnerable to GW’s three-point shooting and ability to get to the line. Opponents are hitting 36 percent of their three-point shots against the Flyers and GW has scored 318 points from the charity stripe, most in the A-10 by 61, on league second-best 76 percent shooting. Dayton, on the other hand, has hit only 67.8 percent of attempts.

The case for the Flyers: The best argument for Dayton is the team’s ceiling. The Flyers have a talent-packed roster that is just fully coming together and has already proven itself in wins against Iowa and at Vanderbilt.

The Colonials know the frontcourt of Dyshawn Pierre and Kendall Pollard, both 6-foot-6, but the Flyers have benefited from the addition of 6-foot-11 redshirt freshman center Steve McElvene, who is averaging 6.8 points and 7.8 rebounds in 20.9 minutes per game. To do that, McElvene is getting more than 14 percent of available offensive rebounds and 23 percent of defensive rebounds. He also has a block percentage of 11.2, 20th in Division I according to KenPom.

Around the perimeter, GW knows junior gurads Scoochie Smith (10.6 points and 4.5 assists per game) and Kyle Davis (8.6 points in less than 5.5 shots per game), but newcomer Charles Cooke is leading the Flyers in scoring at 15.7 points per game. The explosive 6-foot-5, 200-pound wing is also adding 6.5 rebounds per game and would be a difficult matchup for the Colonials, who would likely need a big game from Patricio Garino on defense to contain him.

Cooke might not be at full strength, however, after he injured his oblique in practice on Monday and did not play in Dayton’s win over Davidson on Tuesday. Miller was hoping he would be ready to play the Wildcats, though, so he is not expected to miss much time.

GW, of course, is likely to be without starting point guard Joe McDonald. Paul Jorgensen got the start in McDonald’s place at UMass on Tuesday, but it was Alex Mitola who came away having impressed the most. The two will likely split minutes.

The bottom line: Dayton is favored to win at home. Lesser teams have won on bad days for the Flyers, but it would take a big defense of the paint, stopping penetration and rebounding, for GW to beat Dayton playing up to its potential.