Public opinion experts discussed the results of the 2024 election and its potential ramifications for Republican and Democratic political agendas at the School of Media & Public Affairs on Tuesday.
Whit Ayres and Mark Mellman, the presidents of public opinion research and polling firms North Star Opinion Research and The Mellman Group, respectively, joined Casey Burgat, the legislative affairs program director of the Graduate School of Political Management, for a live recording of his GSPM-sponsored podcast “Mastering the Room.” The school hosted the event as a bipartisan discussion, as Ayres advises Republican campaigns, and Mellman advises Democratic campaigns.
Following an introduction from College of Professional Studies Dean Liesl Riddle, who discussed the college’s political education program offerings, Ayres and Mellman began their conversation with a discussion about how political analysts could have used history to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
Ayres said in the history of U.S. polling, no presidential candidate has ever won re-election with an approval rating of 40 percent or less. He said he was unsurprised by President-elect Donald Trump’s victory given President Joe Biden’s low approval rating and the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris could only distance herself “so much” from the Biden administration.
“It’s just real clear in the history of our politics, you don’t get reelected with a 40 percent job approval,” Ayres said.
Ayres said Democratic candidates for Senate were able to win or outperform Harris in states that Trump won because they are not tied as closely to economic conditions associated with an incumbent administration.
“They may not have liked Donald Trump very much, but they remembered his economy as easier for them to make ends meet, and that is a huge driver, especially when you come to a presidential election,” Ayres said.
Ayres said the presidential and congressional election outcomes were stronger for the Democrats with Harris as the nominee, compared to projected outcomes for Biden before he dropped out of the race. He said Harris ran an effective campaign, and the responsibility for the loss lies more with the president than her.
“Overall, I think it’s very difficult to blame Kamala Harris or her campaign team for this outcome,” Ayres said. “Given her skillset and given the situation that she was in, I thought she did a fairly remarkable job. I think this loss is far more on Joe Biden than is on Kamala Harris.”
Mellman said regardless of Harris’ campaign, it was going to be difficult for the Democratic candidate to win the presidency because Americans believe Biden’s administration has mishandled the economy. Mellman said polls indicated a close race, but a prediction methodology created by economist Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale University, predicted a Trump victory due to the country’s economic conditions and the way people feel about the economy.
“If you just look at those economic fundamentals that were available in January, let alone those that were available in October, Fair’s model predicted about 47 to 48 percent of the vote for Kamala Harris, and that’s what she got,” Mellman said.
Mellman said with the Republican party’s loyalty to Trump and majority in the House of Representatives, there will be minimal checks on Trump’s power during the first half of his term and full support for his agenda. He said he predicts that Democrats will gain control of the House and potentially the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, enabling them to push against Trump’s agenda for the remainder of his term.
“In 2026, the Democrats are going to have a great midterm,” Mellman said. “Usually you have a great midterm for the party out of power, and Donald Trump, I believe, will screw up the country to such an extent that people will be particularly angry, particularly upset and particularly willing to vote Democratic.”
