Experts on Bolivia and Peru discussed the current political challenges threatening regional stability in Latin America at the School of Media & Public Affairs on Monday.
Robert Albro, a research associate professor for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University, and Cynthia McClintock, an Elliott School of International Affairs professor, discussed the ongoing political legitimacy and leadership crises in Bolivia and Peru, respectively. The Alexander Hamilton Society, an organization that organizes debate and programming centered around the Hamiltonian perspective of “strong and principled American leadership,” hosted the event, which was moderated by Nicolas Novoa, the society’s committee officer at GW.
McClintock said ethnic divides between indigenous, rural Peruvians and coastal city Spanish have been compounded by geographic diversity, given Peru’s jungles, mountains and coastal cities each house communities with unique identities. Albro said Bolivia is similarly diverse with ethnic, class and geographic differences, which fostered a divide that has historically kept the indigenous agriculturists majority out of power.
McClintock said Peru has been plagued by political, ethnic and class tensions. She said democratic and government inefficiency has left the country with low presidential approval ratings — the incumbent Dina Boluarte holds only 9 percent as of 2022 — and a low democratic satisfaction score of 11 percent.
“These were approval ratings from 2022 when Boluarte was at that really high rate of 9 percent,” McClintock said.
McClintock said Pedro Castillo, a left-wing teacher’s union leader who secured a narrow win in Peru’s 2021 presidential election, led to further political instability due to his short, corrupt tenure and third impeachment, which removed him from power after only 497 days in office when he attempted to dissolve parliament. She said this impeachment led to widespread protests from many Peruvians who demanded new elections and the resignation of his successor, Dina Boluarte.
McClintock said protesters claimed that Castillo’s lack of allies in parliament and previous attempts to impeach him on corruption charges by the established political elites were politically motivated and paralyzed his ability to govern effectively. She said the government claimed the ascension of his vice president as his successor was constitutional and his attempt to dissolve parliament was a coup attempt. She said protesters’ demand for new elections to replace his vice president “didn’t happen” and Boluarte has been serving the remainder of Castillo’s five-year term since, though her administration has been rocked by corruption scandals.
Pivoting to Bolivia, Albro said the country’s diverse geography and ethnic divides play a significant role in the country’s continued political instability. He said out of a country of 10 million people, a large number — 70 to 80 percent — identify as indigenous.
“We’re talking about a majority of that country that has for most of its existence been relegated to second-class citizenship in oftentimes extreme ways,” Albro said.
Albro said Evo Morales’ 2006 election turned the underrepresented indigenous Bolivians into a dominant political force, which granted Morales unprecedented popularity due to him being the first indigenous Bolivian president and his social programs that helped poor Bolivians ascend to middle class.
“What you saw was a kind of uplift in the country of people who had been at the poverty level, and they were moved into middle class status,” Albro said. “So there was an incredible demographic shift in the country.”
Albro said Morales sought an unconstitutional third term and called for a referendum on whether his popularity could ride him to a third term, but this failed. Nonetheless, he ran and lost, which caused political upheaval.
“Morales had to leave the country and fled to Mexico, where he was for some weeks. In the absence of that, the lowland conservative political party groups, who did not command a plurality of votes in the country, installed a president,” Albro said.
This new president, Jeanine Áñez, was seen as illegitimate and new elections were held that culminated in a close ally of Morales, Luis Arce, winning.
Albro said a leadership dispute between Morales and his successor, incumbent Bolivian president Luis Arce, within the previously dominant Movement Toward Socialism party, otherwise known as Movimiento al Socialismo, created instability. He said this instability has opened the door to other parties taking power in the coming 2025 election.
“Now you have two contending rivals, both claiming leadership of the party, and for the first time, the history of the MAS, what you have is internal fragmentation, and that’s bad because that meant that the dominant position that the MAS had enjoyed for going on decades now isn’t so dominant,” Albro said
