A former U.S. foreign correspondent and author discussed his book on President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s motivations for invading Ukraine at the Elliott School of International Affairs on Monday.
Lucian Kim — a former reporter for National Public Radio and a current senior Ukraine analyst at the International Crisis Group — discussed his new book, Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, which examines how Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was influenced by former events, like the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and recent political movements in former Soviet territories. The event, hosted by the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies and the Petrach Program on Ukraine, was moderated by Henry Hale, a professor of international affairs and political science.
Kim began his talk by outlining key arguments from various chapters of his book, which identify the legacy of Russian imperialism and rising autocracy under Putin’s rule as two key reasons behind Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022. Kim said that, regarding Russian imperialism, Ukrainians and Russians shared a relatively close bond due to their shared history under Soviet rule.
“What Putin managed to awaken with his propaganda was this feeling of empire, that this is ours and that we are about to lose it and we need to take it back,” Kim said.
Under Putin’s reign, which began in 2000, Kim said Russia has become increasingly authoritarian.
“The point I try to make is one of the drivers of this war was Putin’s growing autocracy,” Kim said. “This war would not have happened in 2014 even.”
Kim said his book emphasizes the importance of Russia’s imperial legacy of control over neighboring countries and the rising authoritarianism in Russia under Putin, but also addresses U.S. foreign policy. In his talk, Kim outlined how recent U.S. presidents have handled relationships with both Ukraine and Russia, generally assuring the U.S. had a good relationship with Russia, given its nuclear power, and paying less attention to Ukraine.
Kim took questions from the audience and offered insight on current relations between the U.S. and Russia. He said President George W. Bush supported Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but presidents after Bush have been less eager due to their focus on the relationship with Russia.
Kim said with the apparent threat of Russia’s invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was desperate to meet with President Joe Biden when he entered office, but Biden “blew him off” and ultimately met with Putin in June 2021 before meeting with Zelenskyy in September 2021.
Kim said for the U.S., the balance between respecting Russia’s autonomy and supporting countries formerly under Soviet rule has consistently leaned in Russia’s favor. Kim said presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Biden saw it was their duty to accommodate Putin and acted accordingly.
“The tragedy for Ukraine is that after George W. Bush, no American president cared about Ukraine — I mean at all — and not to mention Ukraine in NATO,” Kim said.
Russia claimed they faced a threat from Ukraine’s 2022 application to join NATO and the organization’s consideration of allowing them to join as it would bring a NATO country to their border. While NATO considered allowing Ukraine to join the alliance, Kim emphasized that the U.S. consistently erred on the side of respecting Russia’s desires over supporting Ukraine in their goal of joining NATO.
In his talk, Kim discussed the need for the U.S. to balance relations with Russia due to the nuclear threat they pose and the way that threat will continue. He said under the incoming Trump administration, U.S.-Russia relations will likely attain higher status in U.S. foreign policy.
“I think with Donald Trump coming into office, I think we’re going to see really the pendulum swing the other way, where the primacy of Russian-American relations will again be much more important and U.S. relations to other former Soviet countries is going to take a back seat to that relationship,” Kim said.