Last week’s release of the 2024-25 men’s basketball nonconference schedule brought brief excitement and then great disappointment — feelings similar to the trajectory of last season’s flash-in-the-pan campaign.
The Revs started their 2023-24 nonconference effort with a rousing 11-2 record. GW’s early run piqued the interest of fans who had not seen such a start since the 2015-2016 season that ended with an NIT championship, the Rev’s last postseason success.
Energy around the team was painfully stifled by a 4-14 conference performance meltdown. A 12-game losing streak squashed any hope of a postseason run, prophesying a last-in-conference ranking and a first-round Atlantic 10 tournament exit.
The great plummet left many scratching their heads. Was it the inexperience of a frosh-dominated roster? A slew of late-season injuries? Temptations of the transfer portal from key players? While these factors might have influenced the season’s course, a look at nonconference scheduling decisions reveals a turning point in the team’s success. Unfortunately, this year’s setup looks like another impasse for GW.
Let’s break things down.
NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings help demonstrate the weakness of GW’s schedule. The rankings are used to assess and rank college basketball teams based on factors like game results, strength of schedule and overall performance — a metric that helps determine which teams make the NCAA tournament.
GW ended last season with a NET ranking of 192 out of 362 DI teams.
Last season, the average NET ranking of GW’s non-conference opponents was 256.125. Sans 2023’s Bahamas tournament and a cross-division against Bowie State, four of GW’s eight non-conference competitors ranked in the bottom 14% of NET-ranked teams. Our toughest competition was against South Carolina, which sat at No. 51 and was the only away game of our non-conference bout. GW fell 89-67 against the Gamecocks.
A vital criterion that contributes to NET rankings is quadrant wins, which break down a team’s performance based on the quality of their opponents by grouping games into four quadrants depending on the game’s location — home, neutral or away — and the ranking of the opponent. Wins in Quadrants 1 and 2 are critical to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, as they show a team’s ability to beat strong competitors. Losses to weak teams in Quadrant 3 or 4, especially at home, can negatively affect a team's NET ranking.
GW had one Q1 win last season against VCU, a narrow two-point victory on the road against the No. 71 ranked Rams at the time of play. The Revs suffered particularly in Q2 wins last year, going 0-5 last season. All Q2 losses were during A-10 play.
Where men’s basketball could’ve made a difference in Q3, the team underperformed at 6-6. Five of the six Q3 losses were to A-10 teams. All of GW’s Q4 wins came from nonconference play, the least impressive victories in terms of NET rankings as they were home wins against the lowest-ranked teams.
This data makes it apparent that GW's nonconference schedule failed to prepare them for A-10 play. Their Q4 wins were against nonconference teams that provided little competitive challenge. GW faltered when faced with tougher A-10 matchups in Q2 and Q3 games. A losing Q1 and middling Q3 record against predominantly A-10 teams further evidence a lack of preparation for conference play.
But did GW learn its scheduling lesson?
Let’s look at this year’s lineup. Off the bat, the average NET ranking of opponents is 324.875 — just over 68 spots lower than last year. GW’s first game is against Mercyhurst College, a school just transitioning to a Division I competition this year. The Revs also play Division II UVA-Wise on Dec. 22. Outside of these teams and the US Virgin Island Classic games in November, six of the remaining eight nonconference games are against teams in the bottom 14% of NET ranked opponents. The highest ranked competitor is American at No. 287.
No 2024-25 opponent outlined above secured a Q1 win last season. Only American and Lafayette notched a win in Q2 and every competitor has a losing record in Q3. To highlight just how weak this docket is, American is the only team with a winning record in Q4. Lafayette went 6-6. As it stands, a win against any of our nonconference contenders would qualify only as a Q4 win. All but two of these games will be played at home, further mitigating the legitimacy of the Revolutionaries’ schedule.
Both schedules show glaring differences from the strength of A-10 opponents, in which the lowest NET-ranked team is Rhode Island at No. 211. Dayton ranks the highest at No. 23. Every team in the conference performed better than GW against Q2 teams besides La Salle. GW’s 2023-24 nonconference schedule strength ranked No. 342 among all Division I teams — the lowest in the A-10 when ranked based on how a typical 25th-ranked Division I team would do against each team's nonconference schedule to date.
The crash-and-burn plight of GW basketball should’ve been predictable. The margin of difference between the Revs and more statistically successful teams in the conference was a dead giveaway.
The program seems to be at a crossroads. Does an easy early schedule build confidence, or a false sense of it? If last season’s momentum is any indication, it seems like the answer is the latter.
Winning early, especially in blowouts or dominant fashion, can help the team build momentum and on-court chemistry, particularly with a youthful roster like GW’s. Coaches can also rotate players more freely, giving bench players experience and helping the team develop depth.
On the other hand, facing only easy opponents created unrealistic standards that were shattered when met by tougher teams in A-10 play last year. The team wasn’t fully tested until it was too late. For a team hoping to make the NCAA or NIT tournament, a weak nonconference schedule could hurt their chances of receiving an at-large bid.
Other influential factors will be the growing maturity of our roster, key returner performances from players like A-10 All-Rookie Darren Buchannan Jr., several new coaching additions, transfer strength, freshman abilities and injured contributors, such as Garrett Johnson.
The Revs might rack up wins in the nonconference slate, but only time will tell whether they’ll be battle-tested or battle-scarred during A-10 play. Here’s to hoping history doesn’t repeat itself.
