An assistant professor of political science discussed his new book on economic theory during a talk at the Elliott School of International Affairs on Tuesday.
Jeffrey Ding, a professor and expert in emerging technologies and international politics, talked about his book, “Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition,” which he released last month to outline his GPT diffusion theory — developed to explain how emerging technologies affect changes in global economic power. After Ding’s presentation, Richard Danzig, a senior fellow in the physics lab at Johns Hopkins University, concluded the event with brief remarks on the book and an analysis of the situations where the theory can be implemented most effectively.
The event was part of the ongoing Elliott School Book Launch Series, which features newly published books authored by GW professors.
Ding said his GPT diffusion theory focuses on how new ideas, specifically artificial intelligence, are most effectively developed when multiple countries collaborate on its creation. He said this approach contrasts with the leading sector theory, which is widely accepted in the economic community and argues that a country gets the most out of technological development when it focuses on its personal innovation and competes with other countries.
During his presentation, Ding summarized the differences between the leading sector theory and the GPT diffusion theory. He said with leading sector theory, countries focus all of their innovation efforts on the information and technology available in their country and spend a significant amount of money researching new resources. He said the GPT diffusion theory differs by allowing countries to collaborate, share resources and spread innovation across borders.
Ding said his theory operates under a “much longer time frame” compared to the leading sector theory because it takes time for countries to collaborate and share information.
“We shouldn’t see productivity payoffs, significant ones, before 2030,” Ding said, in reference to when society will see his GPT diffusion theory take effect.
He said countries have practiced GPT diffusion in past industrial revolutions, though it has yet been applied to artificial intelligence. Ding said one example of its application can be analyzed by reflecting on World War I, when the United States took inspiration from chemical engineering that Germany researched and developed.
“German universities dominate chemical research, but they fail to create this unique combination that becomes the chemical engineering discipline,” Ding said.
Ding cited China’s innovation capacity indicator, the rate at which new technology and ideas spread, and the country’s diffusion capacity indicator, its ability to spread and adopt innovations, as measurements that support the efficacy of his theory.
“If you look at the innovation capacity indicators, China ranks at around 13 in the world,” Ding said. “But if you look at diffusion capacity indicators, China drops all the way to around 50.”
Ding said his theory helps explain the rise of AI between the U.S. and China because the two countries contributed their respective strengths to its development. He said China invests more in artificial intelligence research, while the U.S. is able to dedicate more resources to applying AI research to technology, similarly to how the country used Germany’s chemical engineering in World War I.
Ding stated in a Sept. 2023 testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that diffusion capacity indicators are better predictors of a country’s long-term growth in technology development than innovation capacity indicators.
After Ding’s presentation on this theory and book, Danzig gave brief remarks about the book and the author.
Danzig said Ding should also look at how GPT diffusion theory applies in the short-term as opposed to just the long-term, referring to the next decade. Danzig said China might invade Taiwan by 2027, which is outside of Ding’s long-term timeline.
“Jeff is considerably younger than me and has more assurance he is going to be here in 2030,” Danzig said.
He said AI is the “fastest” diffusing invention in the “history of the world.”
But Danzig complimented the toughness of Ding’s research and called his book “exceptional” regarding his theory. He said Ding had the ability to stand back like a “hawk” to look over his entire theory and what research could apply to it.
“To offer a general view that integrates the history of technology, general economic theory, political theory, notions about military, notions of what happened in different industrial revolutions and come up with a set of conclusions, I think that’s pretty terrific,” Danzig said.
