Where: Siegel Center, Richmond, Va., CBSSN (TV)
When: Saturday, Feb. 5 at 12 p.m.
The more things change, the more they…
OK, you get it. It’s that time of year, folks. GW’s heading down to Richmond for a matchup at VCU. The Rams are atop the Atlantic 10 with a perfect conference record. So much for that adjustment year, head coach Will Wade has VCU on a 12-game winning streak going into the contest.
Here’s what to expect from the game:
The case for the Colonials:
It’s always possible VCU is due for a stinker, but that’s definitely not something for Colonials fans to count on.
Teams with size have fared well against VCU, and GW will have a size advantage in the game. The 6-foot-10 Michael Gilmore and 6-foot-9 Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed will see time, but the majority of VCU’s minutes up front go to Mo Alie-Cox and Justin Tillman, both 6-foot-7. Alie-Cox (9.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game) has been a difficult matchup for GW in the past, but the addition of Tyler Cavanaugh and Yuta Watanabe’s development into a better around-the-rim player (which has been apparent in the last two games, though Watanabe had a tough stretch at the beginning of the conference season) could open up the paint to GW’s advantage.
The Colonials have had the best rebounding margin (with the most offensive rebounds and third-most defensive rebounds) in the league in conference play, while VCU is fifth. The worst-case scenario for GW is VCU getting on a big run in their packed house, and a good performance on the boards should help prevent that and keep things close.
If the game is close, the Colonials will have one thing on their side: free throws. GW has the third-best free throw percentage (75) in conference play while VCU has the worst (67).
The case for the Rams:
VCU is a difficult matchup for GW. The Rams still use essentially the same defensive pressure (9.1 steals per game and a +5.22 turnover margin in conference play, both best in the league) they did under Shaka Smart, but it’s VCU’s offense that may pose the biggest threat. The Rams have averaged an A-10-best 83.8 points per game since conference play began and are outscoring opponents by 15.6 points per game.
Point guard JeQuan Lewis is averaging 11.2 points and 4.8 assists per game after working to become more of a passer during the offseason. He’s critical to the motion and ball-screen work VCU has been difficult to stop with and, as the kind of quick guard GW typically struggles against, will be a huge challenge. He’ll have a speed advantage on Joe McDonald so GW’s bigs will have to lock down the paint to prevent him from driving easily, especially since he’s been near-perfect from the free throw line in conference play.
6-foot-4 senior guard Melvin Johnson is VCU’s top scorer, at 19 points per game, and he’s actually shooting slightly better (44 percent) from beyond the arc than in front of it (43 percent). Head coach Mike Lonergan may handle him with a combination of Patricio Garino and Yuta Watanabe, hoping to limit Johnson’s options with their length. With both Garino and Watanabe on the court, the other would likely take guard Korey Billbury, who’s getting 11.0 points per game to go with 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game.
Still, GW will have to prepare for a lot of different matchups, since Will Wade plays a solid ten-deep. That tenth man, guard Jonathan Williams, still averages 11.9 points per game, which translates to a Rams team that will still be relatively fresh at the end of this one.
The bottom line: A win here would do a lot for GW’s NCAA Tournament resume, but it’s not likely. Recent history, at least, says VCU should win here. Still, the Colonials seem to be trending up, and they’re a scary team when playing to full potential. A sustained 40-minute effort with good team defense and rebounding, plus points at the free throw line, seems like the formula for an upset in this one.
