BROOKLYN, NY – Under the bright lights of Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, you could burn your stat sheet. Magnified under the scope of the Atlantic 10’s biggest tournament, it can almost be frivolous to study the statistics before a game.
But heading into tonight’s game against Rhode Island, the best scouting report might say to stop the Colonials from shooting the three.
Compare that concept to what the numbers say and you might be surprised: GW scores nearly the same percentage of their points from behind the arc in their wins as they do in their losses.
In wins: 23.3 percent of the Colonials points come from three-pointers; 28.0 percent of their shot total shot attempts come from the trey. In losses: 22.3 percent of GW’s points come from threes; 30.2 percent of their total shot attempts come from the three-ball.
So what gives? There is a stark difference in three-point field goal percentage, 39.1 percent in wins and 27.3 percent in losses.
The triple point threat can devastate GW’s opponents. In the Colonials’ final home game, they shot 14-18 from behind the arc. Last night in their opening round matchup against Duquesne, they made eight threes in the first half, finishing 10-20.
Duquesne head coach Jim Ferry had a game plan: play a 2-3 zone to pack the paint (and conserve energy for a potentially fatigued bunch from the prior night’s game), like they did at home when they defeated GW 78-62. He said the Colonials score 70 percent of their points in the paint, so to stop it, play the zone and air on the side of caution with three.
“They’re good shooters. They’re just guys that take the three-point shot secondary,” Ferry said.
In the last three games, all wins, 35.5 percent of GW’s made shots have been from three and 32.5 percent of their total shots have been from behind the arc. The Colonials have been using their hot-shooting to their advantage.
“Over the last two and a half weeks, they have been shooting the ball fantastic,” Ferry added. “But, when you are a good team like that, we have to choose our poison.”
Perhaps the key for the Colonials is shot selection. Freshman Yuta Watanabe, who went 2-6 from three last night, and junior Joe McDonald, 4-6 from behind the arc, have had more space when they shoot lately. Better shots have meant better percentages of late.
McDonald attributed the better numbers to shot preparation. Same story for the freshman.
“Well, I’m practicing like every night by myself,” Watanabe said. “So I got confidence, like every time, so I just take shots.”
Head coach Mike Lonergan has seen his team’s confidence rise. He noted that earlier in the season his team could not shoot the ball well. Then they stopped playing their stout defense. So they hit the gym to work on the jump shot. Now, the three ball has started to drop at the same time the defense has picked up.
“Sometimes we get a little tight when things don’t go well,” Lonergan said. “But lately, we’ve gotten our confidence. Part of that is Yuta. He had a lot of games where he’s 1-5, 0-5, and now he’s bounced back. And when he hits shots early, he was terrific. That gave us team confidence. I was actually asking Joe to step up and try to shoot some more threes.”
Against Rhode Island, the biggest key might not be volume of threes but the shot selection, because the Colonials have shown they will shoot the trey in all types of games.
