Eight weeks before primary season kicks off for the city’s half-dozen Democratic mayoral candidates, one question is hanging over their heads: Will Mayor Vincent Gray seek reelection?
City experts say if he chooses to run, the embattled one-term mayor would still likely pull off a win.
Gray remains under a federal investigation that has already brought some of his closest campaign advisers to court. Longtime followers of city politics argue that the outcome of that probe – which is expected to end this year – will play a major role in whether or not Gray will seek reelection.
Mark Plotkin, a D.C. political analyst who met Gray on their first day at GW in August 1964, said the investigation is likely the only thing holding Gray back.
“I think he’s waiting till the last moment, and obviously if this investigation didn’t hang over him, he would definitely run,” Plotkin said.
Registration for the city’s Democratic primary begins in November. During Gray’s last campaign, he announced his candidacy in March 2010 – about six months before that year’s primary. This year’s primary has been pushed up to April, and experts say collecting signatures could be more difficult in the cold weather.
Two years later, Gray is fighting back against allegations about a more than $600,000 “shadow campaign” funded by D.C. businessman Jeffrey Thompson, who was also alleged last week to have illegally bolstered the campaign of 2008 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
Gray has said he knows nothing about the fund. But Tom Lindenfeld, the top strategist for D.C. Council member and mayoral candidate Muriel Bowser, said the ongoing investigation could cause trouble for Gray if he decides to run.
“As long as that investigation continues, I don’t think the mayor would seek reelection. The crux of the matter is if you’re under investigation, it’s very hard to gain the support necessary to run and win,” Lindenfeld said.
The mayor, meanwhile, has stayed quiet on the topic of reelection.
“The mayor is focused on running the city and carrying out his priorities to continue the progress we are seeing. He will announce whether he will seek reelection when the time comes,” Doxie McCoy, a spokeswoman for the mayor, said in an email Thursday.
Gray would be up against D.C. Council members Tommy Wells, Jack Evans and Bowser, as well as former State Department official Reta Jo Lewis and local businessman Christian Carter. Evans, who has served as Foggy Bottom’s council member since 1991, has run on a campaign rooted in his experience in government and a scandal-free reputation.
In a July poll conducted by Wells’ campaign, Gray had a small lead over the three Council members, with 21 percent saying they would vote for the current mayor. But 31 percent said they were undecided.
Chuck Thies, a political analyst and contributor to NBC Washington, called the campaigns so far “uninspiring and boring,” and said candidates need to play up their economic prowess to jump out in front.
He added that besides the occasional public appearance at a city event, Gray has done little to hint at a reelection bid.
“At this point it’s a coin flip, it really is,” Thies said. “If Gray decides to run, he will immediately become the frontrunner. Nobody else in the race has any real traction, name recognition or the past experience that he has.”
Plotkin said after studying the candidates that Evans will “benefit the most if Gray does not run.”
“Jack Evans will be very well-financed, but he needs to be perceived as a candidate not of big business,” Plotkin said. “Tommy Wells is the least-positioned, and I have a trouble creating a scenario where he wins.”
Still, he said Bowser would be the most likely to claim victory, making her the District’s second black female mayor.
“I think Muriel Bowser is perceived as frontrunner mostly because she’s a black woman,” Plotkin said. “There is a racial component to this. African Americans in the city don’t want to give up the mayoral race. The identity as a black woman is an advantage.”
If Evans or Wells won the election, either would be the District’s first white mayor since home rule began in 1975.
The general election will take place next November. Only Democrats have served as D.C. mayor.
