This post was written by Hatchet reporter Samantha Abramowitz.
Positive economic headlines and a bloody Republican race are lifting President Barack Obama’s approval ratings and setting him on a track toward re-election, a panel of pollsters and journalists said in the Marvin Center.
More than half of registered voters nationwide now approve of Obama’s presidency, according to a Politico-George Washington University Battleground Poll released Monday. That job approval rating has increased nine percentage points to 53 percent since the partnership’s last survey in November.
The poll was conducted by a bipartisan duo – Republican Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners – and housed in GW’s Global Media Institute.
Obama now has the economy on his side, particularly in terms of falling unemployment numbers, Goeas said.
“Two things are going on. The Republicans are being inwardly focused [on the primary] and that has giving an opening to the president’s cabinet here and there on some key points in the economy,” he said.
Voters have consistently considered the economy and jobs the most important issues in the country. Just less than half of voters praise Obama’s economic moves and what his administration has done to create jobs.
The Labor Department reported big job gains in January, bumping the unemployment rate down to 8.3 percent – the lowest level since early 2009.
Goeas said the Republican candidates’ downfalls have been not spending enough time hammering out clear economic ideas in the campaign. Arizona and Michigan will hold their primaries Tuesday and 10 more states will vote March 6 on Super Tuesday.
Lake said without a clear-cut Republican to counter Obama’s momentum, the poll demonstrates his likelihood of winning the 2012 election.
Obama may also take advantage of Republicans’ weakness with independent voters. Mitt Romney earned only a 33 percent approval rating from independent voters while 40 percent of independent voters viewed Rick Santorum favorably.
But Obama’s pathway to victory is not certain, the pollsters said, with more than half of voters who believe the country is on the wrong track.
Goeas said while conservative voters’ opposition to Obama solidifies Republican turnout in elections, independent voters hold the key.
“My belief is that angry independents determine the vote in the presidential year,” Goeas said.
Chris Arterton, a professor of political management, said Obama’s ratings are experiencing a “halo effect,” where voters who see gains in the economy endorse the president overall.
He said Obama will hear good news on Election Day only if voters see the economy growing and the unemployment rate continuing to fall near November.
“There is good reason to be optimistic, but the election is not tomorrow. We have a long time to go and if the economic news doesn’t continue to improve, the polling will deteriorate,” Arterton said.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters around the country Feb. 19 through Feb. 22. It has a margin of error of + 3.1 percent.
This post was updated on Feb. 27, 2012 to reflect the following:
The Hatchet misidentified Jonathan Martin as Jim VandeHei in the photo caption of this post.
