When most high school seniors are deciding which colleges to apply to, they develop several lists: their dream schools, their target schools and one or two “safety” schools they know they can get into. It used to be that those safety schools were mostly state universities. But today’s high school seniors have found that admission to a state university is no longer a given.

Few state universities can claim the same sort of prestige that Ivy League schools command. But given the huge numbers of students applying for college, the best and brightest that are rejected by the Ivy Leagues find themselves choosing between lesser-known private colleges and state universities.

With tuition alone at private colleges hovering around $25,000 a year, state universities offer a bargain. Fewer and fewer families are willing to pay more than $100,000 for a four-year education at a private college when their children can receive a quality education at a state university for a fraction of that cost.

But with a larger crop of highly qualified students to choose from, many state universities are admitting fewer students with B averages or lower. These are the same students who have traditionally counted on the state universities as their only means of getting a good, affordable education.

Students with a B average now face being diverted from a state university’s flagship school and toward satellite branches. Private universities are becoming increasingly willing to offer grants instead of loans to lure students from more affordable state universities. That’s good news for the high school students who do well on standardized tests and have high grade point averages. Still, for the millions of students with average grades in high school, their problems extend well beyond who they will take to the prom.